Why it matters
What this principle is for.
The culture stalls if every decision has to travel up the chain. Sound judgment at the lowest level that can own the call is how you keep moving. Bring a vetted recommendation, not a pile of options and a request that someone else decide.
This is not "Are Right, All The Time." Even people who are right a lot are wrong a lot. The ones who stay right train their intuition by admitting the miss fast, taking the better path, and not getting trapped in being consistent with their last opinion.
When you can eliminate judgment and do the arithmetic, do that. That is the best kind of decision. When you cannot, you use the gut you have taught over time, and you say that is what you are doing. Fake certainty is the under move. Waiting for a perfect data set is the over move.
The other principles keep this one honest. Dive Deep so the recommendation is sound. Earn Trust so people will tell you that you are wrong. Have Backbone; Disagree and Commit so you do not fold for social comfort, and so you commit when the call goes against you. Learn and Be Curious is how the next judgment gets better.
Calibration
Under, just right, over.
Look for how someone changed their mind, and what disconfirmed them. A streak of correct calls with no dissent in the story is a warning. So is a person who cannot decide without a committee, or who cannot let anyone else be right.
| Situation | Under | Just Right | Over |
|---|
Examples
What it looks like in the work.
The junior person has the fact
The most junior person in the room can win the argument with a fact. The senior person who is right a lot changes their mind in that room, out loud. Look for that moment. A story where they were right and everyone clapped is not evidence.
Do the arithmetic when you can
Some calls do not need a debate. You can run the test, or you can do the math, and the answer shows up. People who are right a lot hunt those. They do not sit around trading opinions on a question the data can settle. When the data cannot settle it, they say so and use trained judgment.
Say you were wrong, then move
You shipped it. It was wrong. The under move is to hope nobody notices. The over move is to defend the old call so you look consistent. The just-right move is "I got this wrong. That person's framing is better. We are going that way." That is how you train the gut that will be right next time.
In the role
Individual and manager.
Individual
You bring a recommendation, not a menu. You can separate fact, inference, and hope. When you are wrong, you say it in the same week, not in the next performance review. You ask who disagrees before you lock the path.
Manager
You push decisions down to the person closest to the work, then you stay close enough to know when the team is off track. You change your mind in public when a better argument shows up. You do not confuse a loud opinion with judgment.
Go deeper
Questions that make the principle concrete.
- What would argue against the decision you just made?
- When did you last change your mind in the room, and what disconfirmed you?
- Which part of this call is fact, which part is inference, and which part is hope?
- Could you have settled this with a test or with arithmetic instead of a debate?
- Whose call is this, and why is it yours to make?
- What happens if your estimate is off by a factor of ten?
- How does this decision look for the customer in three months, and in three years?
- Who outside your team bought the argument, and who still does not?
- When you were wrong last time, how fast did you say so, and what did you change?
- Are you picking the best option, or a compromise that makes the room comfortable?
From the blog
Writing that goes deeper.
- Have Strong Opinions, Weakly Held
Judgment plus the habit of changing your mind when the fact shows up.
Related