Are Right, A Lot

Leaders build strong judgment by learning from experience, especially their mistakes. They seek diverse perspectives, challenge their assumptions, and actively work to disconfirm their beliefs. Being right is not about defending an opinion; it is about reaching better decisions and applying what they learn.

Why it matters

What this principle is for.

The culture stalls if every decision has to travel up the chain. Sound judgment at the lowest level that can own the call is how you keep moving. Bring a vetted recommendation, not a pile of options and a request that someone else decide.

This is not "Are Right, All The Time." Even people who are right a lot are wrong a lot. The ones who stay right train their intuition by admitting the miss fast, taking the better path, and not getting trapped in being consistent with their last opinion.

When you can eliminate judgment and do the arithmetic, do that. That is the best kind of decision. When you cannot, you use the gut you have trained over time, and you say that is what you are doing. If you fake certainty, you are under. If you wait for a perfect set of data before you decide, you are over.

The other principles keep this one honest. Dive Deep so the recommendation is sound. Earn Trust so people will tell you that you are wrong. Have Backbone; Disagree and Commit so you do not fold for social comfort, and so you commit when the call goes against you. Learn and Be Curious is how the next judgment gets better.

Calibration

Under, just right, over.

Look for how someone changed their mind, and what evidence changed it. A streak of correct calls with no dissent in the story is a warning. So is a person who cannot decide without a committee, or who cannot let anyone else be right.

Situation	Under	Just Right	Over
Someone junior has the fact	Treats rank as the argument and keeps the original call.	Lets the fact win in the room, says what changed, and moves the decision.	Opens a second debate after the fact is already in, so the team leaves with no call.
A room that already agrees	Takes the agreement as proof and locks the path.	Asks who would bet against it, and what evidence would change the call, before locking it.	Keeps hunting dissent after a real objection has been answered, and the work waits.
A question the data can settle	Runs the meeting on opinions when a test or the arithmetic would settle it.	Runs the test or does the math, and uses judgment only for the part that remains.	Refuses to decide the leftover until every unknown is gone, including ones that do not change the call.
You were wrong last week	Hopes nobody notices, or defends the old call so it still looks consistent.	Says the miss in the same week, names the better path, and switches to it.	Spends the week narrating the miss and does not make the next call.
A hunch after the fact showed up	Drops the hunch at the first objection and asks someone else to decide.	Names the hunch, the fact that cuts against it, and which one the decision now follows.	Keeps the hunch after the fact has cut it down, and calls that instinct.
Defending the plan you already announced	Treats the announcement as the reason to stay, and argues with the new evidence.	Updates the plan in public and says which assumption was wrong.	Reverses the plan on every new comment, so nobody can tell which evidence mattered.

Examples

What it looks like in the work.

The junior person has the fact

The most junior person in the room can win the argument with a fact. The senior person who is right a lot changes their mind in that room, out loud. Look for that moment. A story where they were right and everyone clapped is not evidence.

Do the arithmetic when you can

Some calls do not need a debate. You can run the test, or you can do the math, and the answer shows up. People who are right a lot hunt those. They do not sit around trading opinions on a question the data can settle. When the data cannot settle it, they say so and use trained judgment.

Say you were wrong, then move

You shipped it. It was wrong. Hoping nobody notices is under. Defending the old call so you look consistent is over. Just right is saying "I got this wrong. That person's framing is better. We are going that way." That is how you train the gut that will be right next time.

In the role

Individual and manager.

Individual

You bring a recommendation, not a menu. You can separate fact, inference, and hope. When you are wrong, you say it in the same week, not in the next performance review. You ask who disagrees before you lock the path.

Manager

You push decisions down to the person closest to the work, then you stay close enough to know when the team is off track. You change your mind in public when a better argument shows up. You do not confuse a loud opinion with judgment.

Go deeper

Questions that make the principle concrete.

What would argue against the decision you just made?
When did you last change your mind in the room, and what evidence changed it?
Which part of this call is fact, which part is inference, and which part is hope?
Could you have settled this with a test or with arithmetic instead of a debate?
Whose call is this, and why is it yours to make?
What happens if your estimate is off by a factor of ten?
How does this decision look for the customer in three months, and in three years?
Who outside your team bought the argument, and who still does not?
When you were wrong last time, how fast did you say so, and what did you change?
Are you picking the best option, or a compromise that makes the room comfortable?

Sources and essays on this principle.

Have Strong Opinions, Weakly Held
Judgment plus the habit of changing your mind when the fact shows up.
kindel.com
Jason Fried: Some Advice from Jeff Bezos
Notes from a conversation with the founder. The people who are right a lot are the ones who change their minds a lot.
signalvnoise.com

Principles that sit next to this one.

Principles lean on each other, and some pull against each other on purpose (the tension is intentional). Here is how Are Right, A Lot connects to the rest of the set.